Policy rate increases have anchored inflation expectations, says RBI

According to the RBI article, findings on monetary policy transmission in India suggest that monetary policy changes affect short term interest rates more than long-term rates. RBI in this article examines the impact of the monetary policy tightening that was undertaken since May 2022 in India. While anticipated policy changes do not have any instantaneous impact on long-term rates, policy 'surprises' significantly impact all market segments and across tenors. Policy signals tend to wane, however, beyond the three-year tenure, the paper noted.

Policy 'surprises' are found to have a relatively lower but significant pass-through to the exchange rate and equity prices. In terms of the impact of the policy rate tightening on the real economy, a significant negative impact on inflation expectations is observed. The long-run elasticity of the policy rate with respect to inflation expectation reveals that an increase in policy rate anchors expectations effectively. As per the article, the macroeconomic impact of monetary policy on aggregate demand and inflation indicate that the 250 basis points increase since May 2022 has negatively contributed to aggregate demand and headline inflation by 160 bps each till Q2:2024-25, working through various channels of policy transmission.

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