Benchmarks end lower amid weak global cues; realty shares tumble

The domestic equity benchmarks ended with modest losses on Monday, impacted by concerns over a geopolitical trade war and shifting global geopolitical interests. The Nifty ended below the 22,500 level after hitting the day's high of 22,676.75 in the morning trade.

The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, declined 217.41 points or 0.29% to 74,115.17. The Nifty 50 index lost 92.20 points or 0.41%, to 22,460.30.

The broader market underperformed the frontline indices. The S&P BSE Mid-Cap index slipped 1.46% and the S&P BSE Small-Cap index fell 2.11%. The market breadth was weak.

The NSE's India VIX, a gauge of the market's expectation of volatility over the near term, rallied 3.82% to 13.99.

Among the sectoral indices, the Nifty FMCG index (up 0.22%), the Nifty Media index (down 0.26%) and the Nifty Financial Services index (down 0.34%) outperformed the Nifty 50 index.

Meanwhile, the Nifty Realty index (down 2.04%), the Nifty Oil & Gas index (down 1.90%) and the Nifty PSU Bank index (down 1.86%) underperformed the Nifty 50 index.

Economy:

India's forex reserves dropped by $1.781 billion to $638.698 billion in the week ended February 28, the RBI said on Friday.

Foreign currency assets, a major component of the reserves, decreased by $493 million to $543.35 billion.

Gold reserves decreased by $1.304 billion to $73.272 billion during the week, the RBI said. The Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) were up by $27 million to $17.998 billion, the apex bank said.

India's reserve position with the IMF fell by $12 million to $4.078 billion in the reporting week, the apex bank data showed.

Numbers to Track:

The yield on India's 10-year benchmark federal paper grew 1.87% to 6.813 as compared with the previous close of 6.680.

In the foreign exchange market, the rupee edged lower against the dollar. The partially convertible rupee was hovering at 87.3200 compared with its close of 86.9550 during the previous trading session.

MCX Gold futures for the 4 April 2025 settlement fell 0.02% to Rs 85,856.

The US Dollar index (DXY), which tracks the greenback's value against a basket of currencies, was down 0.19% to 103.64.

The United States 10-year bond yield shed 1.74% to 4.243.

In the commodities market, Brent crude for May 2025 settlement added 0.14 cents or 0.20% to $70.50 a barrel.

Global Markets:

US Dow Jones index futures were down 328 points, indicating a negative opening in the US stocks today. Investors remained wary of uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump's tariff policies and mulled over Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's cautious remarks.

European stocks declined on Monday after German exports fell 2.5% month-on-month in January, provisional data from the country's Federal Statistical Office showed.

Most Asian stocks ended lower as traders analyzed fresh economic data from China. Over the weekend, China's consumer inflation dipped into negative territory for the first time in 13 months, driven by seasonal distortions and broader economic headwinds. The consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.7% year-over-year in February, reversing a 0.5% gain in January, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

Adding to market jitters, Beijing announced retaliatory tariffs on certain Canadian agricultural products. The move comes after Canada imposed import duties last year on Chinese electric vehicles, steel, and aluminum. Under the new measures, China will slap a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil, oil cakes, and peas, while a 25% levy will be applied to aquatic products and pork.

In the U.S., major stock indices closed higher on Friday after a volatile trading day. The S&P 500 index rose 0.55% to 5,770.20, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.7% to 18,196.22. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 222.64 points, or 0.52%, to end at 42,801.72.

Meanwhile, the latest labor market data painted a mixed picture. The U.S. economy added 151,000 jobs in February alling short of expectations, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% from January's 4.0%, signaling possible cracks in labor market resilience.

Speaking on Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed the central bank's cautious stance on interest rates. While acknowledging that the U.S. economy remains stable, he emphasized the need for patience, particularly in light of President Donald Trump's recent economic policy shifts, which include tariffs and federal worker layoffs. Powell's comments suggest the Fed is in no rush to alter its policy path amid lingering uncertainties.

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